Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 242.581063 295.113907 360.130785 447.909622 565.531982 7.210189e+02 9.479587e+02
2025-08-03 182.811108 243.322364 328.015785 459.913115 669.543474 1.008354e+03 1.642582e+03
2025-08-10 148.370626 209.548306 302.616943 463.146335 753.717210 1.307857e+03 2.609626e+03
2025-08-17 123.773387 182.369424 277.086358 453.594261 807.875783 1.585161e+03 3.840565e+03
2025-08-24 105.872905 161.212014 255.048974 441.265185 849.179789 1.863529e+03 5.480692e+03
2025-08-31 92.257517 144.281128 236.033240 428.015509 881.845208 2.147446e+03 7.691940e+03
2025-09-07 87.984781 142.343314 243.185193 469.470893 1063.244744 3.018918e+03 1.498808e+04
2025-09-14 80.528073 133.382953 234.983999 474.772295 1155.154523 3.713731e+03 2.493824e+04
2025-09-21 75.309629 127.696926 232.065626 491.501355 1291.421382 4.783678e+03 4.778517e+04
2025-09-28 69.175659 119.352991 222.031963 487.579968 1361.698452 5.682728e+03 8.386911e+04
2025-10-05 67.566382 119.630142 230.542990 535.363621 1648.668127 8.447370e+03 2.900212e+05
2025-10-12 65.400128 118.433699 235.491281 575.361662 1944.313692 1.233175e+04 1.512771e+06
2025-10-19 62.540167 115.610201 236.646584 606.772912 2248.062529 1.798123e+04 2.857139e+07
2025-10-26 59.302500 111.561274 234.144583 626.427914 2525.018900 2.551455e+04 NaN
2025-11-02 55.762067 106.388679 227.880496 631.524423 2736.454473 3.443556e+04 NaN
2025-11-09 51.837884 99.896241 217.118759 617.304584 2823.368368 4.241665e+04 NaN
2025-11-16 48.191096 93.655061 206.089702 598.960612 2872.442997 5.094482e+04 NaN
2025-11-23 44.889313 87.881508 195.493739 579.311736 2899.544041 6.029761e+04 NaN
2025-11-30 44.610333 89.155327 204.524481 641.031188 3646.414871 1.303123e+05 NaN
2025-12-07 42.623062 86.116471 200.827323 648.974165 3970.177527 2.039163e+05 NaN
2025-12-14 41.264545 84.466109 200.929623 674.111638 4523.164081 3.983022e+05 NaN
2025-12-21 39.205082 80.874824 194.688307 668.209429 4750.660306 6.219870e+05 NaN
2025-12-28 39.121143 82.236038 203.830003 740.531934 6122.402874 3.181139e+06 NaN